Butterflies… and their effect

There was a letter in the newspaper today, commenting on the recent weather, and what may be the cause of it. Unlike the Tory councillor who believed it was the fault of the government for legalising gay marriage, this writer had a different point of view:

SIR – As the warmists blame the storms and floods on climate change, perhaps we should look back a few years to when chaos theory was popular, and it was suggested that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings could cause a hurricane on the other side of the world.

If this is the case, one wonders what the turbulence from the thousands of turbines will do to the world’s weather.

Edward Norton Lorenz who first used the analogy but was proposed a theory  that a tiny occurrence could have a massive effect, not just on weather systems but other areas and even human behaviour. He chose the idea of a butterfly from a story by Ray Bradbury which was published in 1952, but which I read in the 1960’s when I was really interested in science fiction.  I am not clever enough or mathematical enough to know whether this theory has ever been proved, but it seems obvious to me that something tiny can have a massive impact… as had been shown in many fictions – cinematic and literary. Lorenz wasn’t the first person to have this idea, other scientists and mathematicians have also produced theories and models.

A film example is ‘Sliding Doors’ where a character missing her train – or catching her train, had the possibilities of different life outcomes which are explored in the story. I guess most of us sometimes thing “If only I had…” or “If only I hadn’t…” When I was twelve I wanted to study German, but I had to study Latin… that was a choice made for me which had a profound effect; I studied Latin but was so bad at it that I wasn’t allowed to take the exam; because I didn’t have Latin, when I applied to university, there was a stipulation that to study English in most universities, you also had to have Latin; I didn’t get into University… but I got into Manchester Polytechnic – which was amazing! I had a great education there, met life-long friends, and after leaving I remained in Manchester until we moved to the south-west twelve years ago… (I still wish I had learned German though!)